Former free agent pitching bust having a big season

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia, Carl Pavano, Justin Verlander, David Price, John Lester. Tell me which name doesn't belong on this list.

If you said Carl Pavano, you normally wouldn't get much of an argument, at least until this season. The Twins right-hander, however, ranks among the top five in wins in the American League this year along with the four previously mentioned pitchers.

Pavano may be best known for the very disappointing four years he spent with the New York Yankees after signing as a free agent for $39.95 million dollars in December of 2004. His career in New York was highlighted by injuries and controversy. He started just 26 games, compiling a 9-8 record with a 4.99 ERA.

After his contract expired with the Yankees, Pavano signed a one-year deal with the Indians for 2009 in hopes of resurrecting his career. He ended up spending only part of the season with Cleveland, as he was dealt to the Twins in August. He combined to go 14-12 with both teams, and actually started the third game of the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. Following the season, Pavano filed for free agency, but later accepted the Twins' offer of salary arbitration, which resulted in a $7 million dollar deal for 2010.

Some observers might have thought that was too high a price for a pitcher who was two games over .500 last season with a history of arm problems, but right now it's turning out to be a steal for the Twins.

Minnesota might not be in the playoff hunt if not for the season Pavano has had so far. His 12 wins (versus only 6 losses) ranks him third in the American League, and he's number two in complete games (5) and WHIP (1.01), and at the moment he's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, having won seven straight decisions.

Impeccable control has been a big part of his success, and even more so during his current winning streak. He's walked just 19 batters in 143 2/3 innings and issued only five walks during his run.

It's been a long road back since having Tommy John surgery in 2007, but he was always confident he could get to this point.

"I felt like I could do it, but putting that movement into action is a totally different thing," said Pavano. "It's been a while since I've seen the action that I'm seeing right now on my pitches, and to be able to locate the ball in and out, down in the zone with angle, and a little sharper than they've been in the past."

The Twins will need Pavano to stay sharp for the rest of the season if they hope to be playing in October for a second straight year.

QUICK HITS

Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies are fading fast. He gave up six runs and six walks in his last outing Saturday, marking the third time in his last six starts he's given up at least six runs. His ERA over that span is a whopping 7.63. The Rockies now find themselves 7 1/2 games back of the first place Padres in the West.

Two talented young arms in that very same division continue to give a big boost to their respective teams. Mat Latos won his first start off the DL Saturday to improve his record to 11-4. San Diego's 22-year old righty has allowed more than two earned runs only once over his last fourteen starts. Meanwhile, Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' 20-year old southpaw picked up his fourth straight win with a seven inning, two-run performance in Arizona. The rookie's ERA during the winning streak is a minuscule 1.33.

Joba Chamberlain may soon force Yankees' manager Joe Girardi to remove him from his setup role for Mariano Rivera. The struggling Chamberlain gave up a two-run homer to Scott Podsednik Sunday and saw his ERA for July to balloon to 8.10.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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