11/13/2008 - Shanghai, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fourth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko defeated seventh-seeded Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets on Thursday to reach the semifinals at the $4.45 million Tennis Masters Cup.
Davydenko prevailed in 87 minutes in easy 6-3, 6-2 fashion against the 6- foot-5 del Potro, who made his Masters Cup debut this week. Davydenko went 2-1 in this week's Gold Group round-robin action and will now play in Saturday's semifinals, while del Potro settled for a 1-2 mark and is done for the week.
The gritty Russian jumped out to 4-1 leads in both sets and was never challenged on Day 5. Davydenko broke del Potro no less than four times, while allowing only one break against, and the big-hitting Argentine failed to record even one ace in defeat, compared to five for the winning Russian.
Davydenko is now 2-1 lifetime against del Potro, including a 1-1 mark this year. The Argentine beat the Russian in a Davis Cup semifinal tie back in September.
The 20-year-old del Potro will represent Argentina in next week's Davis Cup final against visiting Spain in Mar del Plata. His fine ATP season featured four straight tournament titles at one point just before the U.S. Open.
In another Gold Group match on Day 5, sixth-seeded Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga picked up his only win of the week by overcoming second-seeded Serbian star Novak Djokovic 1-6, 7-5, 6-1 in 1 hour, 38 minutes on the indoor hardcourt at Qi Zhong Stadium. Tsonga popped seven aces and broke Djokovic on three occasions.
The bout marked a rematch of January's Australian Open final, which was won by Djokovic. Tsonga, however, wound up winning three of their four encounters for the year, including three straight and a victory at the Paris Masters just two weeks ago.
The 23-year-old Tsonga, like del Potro, was also making his Masters Cup debut this week. He went 1-2 in the Gold Group, while the group-winner Djokovic was 2-1 and had already booked a spot in Saturday's semis. The Serb was 0-3 in last year's round-robin portion.
The ever-improving Tsonga went 8-5 against Top-10 competition this season.
Red Group round-robin play will wrap up here on Friday when top-seeded Swiss Roger Federer (1-1) meets third-seeded Brit Andy Murray (2-0) and eighth- seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon (1-1) battles Czech alternate Radek Stepanek (0-1), who joined the field on Wednesday when fifth-seeded American star Andy Roddick (0-1) pulled out due to an ankle injury. Federer and Simon are still trying to secure a semifinal berth, while Murray has already qualified for the final four. Stepanek will not play here beyond Friday.
The 13-time major champion Federer, who has won the last five U.S. Opens, is a four-time overall and two-time defending Masters Cup champion. The Wimbledon and French Open runner-up beat Spaniard David Ferrer in last year's finale here in Shanghai and is the only former Masters Cup champion in this year's field.
Federer and Murray will meet in a rematch of the U.S. Open final, which was won by the super Swiss. Murray, however, is 3-2 lifetime against Federer, including a 2-1 record this season.
The red-hot 21-year-old Murray has won 16 of his last 17 matches overall, including titles in St. Petersburg and Madrid.
Murray and Simon, like Tsonga and del Potro, are Masters Cup rookies.
<< Udrih leads Kings to win over Clippers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Beno Udrih poured in a career-high 30
points and doled out seven assists to lead the Sacramento Kings past the Los
Angeles Clippers, 103-98, from Staples Center.
Jason Thompson and Brad Miller both
<< Shoving match overshadows Houston's rout of Suns
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tracy McGrady scored 27 points -- including 15
in the third quarter -- leading the Houston Rockets to a 94-82 win over the
Phoenix Suns in a game marred by a fracas toward the end of the third quarter.
With
<< Seahawks QB Hasselbeck back at practice
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck
practiced Wednesday and was awaiting clearance to start Sunday's home game
against Arizona.
Hasselbeck has been out the last five games due to a continued wea
<< UCLA routs Prairie View
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darren Collison began his senior season on
a solid note, plugging in a team-high 19 points to go with four assists in
fourth-ranked UCLA's 82-58 drubbing of the Prairie View Panthers in opening
round a
Iverson leads Pistons into Oakland to face Warriors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Pistons continue a four-game Western road swing
Thursday when they visit Oakland and the Golden State Warriors.
Allen Iverson posted a terrific all-around effort in getting his first win in
a Pistons uniform, l
Mavs try to get back on track vs. Bulls in Chicago >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The struggling Dallas Mavericks will try and halt a three-
game skid when they make the trek to the Windy City Thursday to face the
Chicago Bulls at the United Center.
Los Angeles' Pau Gasol had 22 points and 11 rebounds,
Pats-Jets Grudge Match for First Place This Time >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The residue of the Spygate controversy and the simmering
bad blood between head coaches Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini will have to
take a back seat on Thursday night.
The headline in the primetime tilt between the New En
Habs try to win 13th straight test versus Bruins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle for first place in the Northeast Division is on
tap tonight in Boston, as the Bruins welcome the Montreal Canadiens for a
matchup between Original Six teams at TD Banknorth Garden.
The Bruins and the Buffalo Sabre
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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