Braves, Marlins play rubber match in South Beach

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jair Jurrjens tries to win his fourth straight decision this afternoon when the Atlanta Braves close out a three-game series with the Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.

Jurrjens has gone 3-0 in his four starts since returning from the disabled list and beat the San Diego Padres on Tuesday. He allowed a run and five hits in seven innings of that one to improve to 3-3 on the year, while lowering his earned run average to 4.25.

In six starts against the Marlins, Jurrjens is 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA.

Florida, meanwhile, will pin its hopes on righty Chris Volstad, who is 4-8 with a 4.78 ERA, but hasn't pitched since July 6. Volstad absorbed the loss in that one and hasn't won in four starts since beating Tampa Bay on June 13.

Volstad, who is 1-2 in four starts against the Braves with a 4.30 ERA, last beat a National League team back on May 7 in Washington.

After Billy Wagner's blown save cost his team a win in the opener, Atlanta bounced back on Saturday, as Brooks Conrad hit his second career grand slam during an eight-run eighth inning, helping the Braves to 10-5 win.

Martin Prado hit a solo homer for Atlanta, while Eric Hinske drove in two runs and scored once. Jason Heyward also had three hits and scored twice for the victors.

Jesse Chavez (2-1) tossed a perfect seventh to pick up the win.

Dan Uggla homered and knocked in three runs for the Marlins, who had a three- game winning streak snapped. Mike Stanton added a solo homer.

"It's not the first time [we blew a lead] and it won't be the last...It just so happens they stole one from us," Uggla said. "That's baseball."

Atlanta has won five of its eight matchups with the Marlins this season.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.