Blue Jays try to continue mastery of Orioles

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Plenty of teams have given the Baltimore Orioles trouble over the course of this season, but none has proven to be a tougher opponent than the Toronto Blue Jays.

Having won all 10 meetings between the American League East foes so far in 2010, Toronto will attempt to extend that astounding streak when it continues a three-game series with the hapless Orioles tonight at the Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays maintained their recent mastery over Baltimore with a 9-5 triumph in Monday's opener of this set. The win was also Toronto's ninth in a row against the Orioles at the Rogers Centre, where Baltimore has now lost in 14 of its last 15 visits.

Toronto used its trademark power to prevail last night, with Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind all hitting homers to pace a 13-hit attack. Bautista's blast, a three-run shot off O's starter Brad Bergesen in the fifth inning, gives the 2010 All-Star a major league-best 28 round-trippers this season.

Lind had a solo homer later in the fifth and finished 3-for-4 with two RBI, while Hill had two hits and knocked in three runs to help the Blue Jays to their third win in four games.

"It's been a season of adjustments and trying to figure things out, hopefully, it's starting to come together," said Lind, who's still batting a subpar .222 for the year. "It's been tough, a lot of work. I'm just going to come back [Tuesday] and try to do it all over again."

Jays starter Brandon Morrow (7-6) added six solid innings on the mound to win on his 26th birthday, with the hard-throwing righty holding Baltimore to two runs and striking out six batters.

Bergesen (3-9) wasn't nearly as effective, as the Blue Jays pounded the second-year major-leaguer for eight runs and 10 hits over the first five innings.

"It was a tough one tonight," said Bergesen afterward. "Obviously, that's one you want to get done with and put it behind you. They jumped on me in the fourth inning and got the timely hits they needed."

Baltimore did homer three times in its latest loss, with Matt Wieters going deep twice and driving in three runs. Luke Scott, named the AL's Player of the Week on Monday, had a two-run shot in defeat.

The Blue Jays have now swatted 152 homers on the season, far and away the most of any team in the majors. Twenty-one of them have come in the club's 10 wins over Baltimore.

Ricky Romero has had a hand in two of Toronto's victories over the Orioles this season, and the talented young hurler was quite impressive in both of those outings. The left-hander, who draws the assignment for the Jays this evening, fired a complete-game six-hitter in a 6-1 besting of Baltimore at the Rogers Centre back in May, then yielded just two unearned runs over seven sharp innings to deal the O's another loss on July 16.

Although he won 13 times during a strong rookie campaign in 2009, Romero did have the same success against Baltimore he's enjoyed this season. The former first-round pick went 0-2 with a 5.47 earned run average in four encounters with the Orioles last year, while surrendering five homers in a combined 26 1/3 innings.

Romero followed up his July 16 victory over the Orioles by working a solid seven innings this past Thursday, even though it resulted in a loss to the Detroit Tigers. The 25-year-old was touched for three runs on seven hits that day.

Kevin Millwood gets the call for Baltimore tonight, with the seasoned veteran set to make his second start since returning from a short stint on the disabled list. He managed to pitch 6 1/3 innings in the comeback appearance, but was still hung with a loss after allowing five runs to the Minnesota Twins last Thursday.

The defeat brought Millwood's 2010 record to 2-9 and raised his ERA to 5.82, the highest of his 14-year tenure in the majors. Two of those setbacks have come at the hands of the Blue Jays, including a May 28 loss at the Rogers Centre in which the 35-year-old was reached for five runs (four earned) and gave up a pair of homers over six innings.

Millwood has struggled on the road throughout the year, bringing a 1-5 ledger with a 5.82 ERA in nine away starts into tonight's clash.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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